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A Hurricane Hunter aircraft was expected to be sent to the western Caribbean on Sunday, forecasters said in their early morning tropical weather forecast, to obtain data on Invest 97L, which has been monitored for days.



Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center believe so There will most likely be a storm within the next 48 hours.


That’s what NHC forecasters say there is an 80% chance Invest 97L will develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next two days. A system further east, near Puerto Rico, is moving eastward and could produce thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles before being incorporated into Invest 97L.


AccuWeather forecasters said Sunday that a tropical storm is likely develop on Monday.


Subtropical storm Patty moved quickly east towards the Azores on Sunday, for which there is no tropical storm warning. The center of Patty is expected to move towards the southeastern Azores today.



There are no threats to land on the US mainland today hurricane attacks in November remain rare.



“The most reliable indications suggest that the western flank of that driving high pressure will still extend across the Gulf, causing a potential storm to continue moving westward or northwestward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” said Ryan Truchalat, forecaster owner of Weathertiger , which provides reporting for the USA TODAY network.



“A minority of model ensemble members have a faster, stronger frontal passage, in which case a storm could theoretically turn northeast toward Florida near the Yucatan or Cuba by the end of next week or the following weekend.”


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The next named storms are Rafael and Sara.



Here are details on what’s available from 5am on November 3:


Where is Subtropical Storm Patty? Is a hurricane headed for Florida?


Location: 37.5N, 25.5W about 200 kilometers southeast of Lajes Air Base, Azores


Maximum sustained wind: 50 km/h


Current movement: East at 18 km/h


Minimum central pressure: 990MB


The center of subtropical storm Patty was located near latitude 37.5 north and longitude 25.5 west. The storm is moving eastward at a speed of nearly 20 miles per hour, and an east-to-east-northeast motion is expected over the next few days.



On the forecast track, Patty’s center is expected to move towards the southeastern Azores in the coming hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 km per hour with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next few days, and Patty is expected to reach a post-tropical low later today or early Monday.


Winds of 65 km/h extend outward up to 270 kilometers, mainly south and southwest of the center.


Hazards to land:


WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in parts of the Azores today.


RAINFALL: Patty is expected to bring rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches in the Azores through Sunday.


SURFING: The swell generated by Patty will hit the Azores in the coming days. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.



Conditions for tropical development near Florida. Will Invest 97L become Tropical Storm Raphael?


The Caribbean waters are warm enough for tropical developmenteven this late in the season. But it’s wind shear, or disruptive breezes, forecasters say they’re watching to determine what’s next. AccuWeather expects a tropical storm to develop Monday night.


“The developing tropical storm is expected to make a northeasterly turn over Jamaica and Cuba next week, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to those islands. It is not out of the question that it could become a hurricane in the Caribbean before reaching Jamaica or Cuba.” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert.


There are a number of options on the table for the path of the approaching tropical storm.


“The future track will depend on the movement of a dip in the jet stream more than 1,000 miles away over the U.S. next week,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.



“If that jet stream dip pushes far enough east, it will tend to pick up the tropical feature and potentially move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into South Florida,” Rayno explained. “But if the jet stream lags westward, the tropical feature could push into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far west as Louisiana or Texas. There is also the possibility it could continue westward. ” and decreases over southern Mexico.”


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The status of Invest 97L Caribbean


Invest 97L in the Southwest Caribbean Sea: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are accompanied by a broad low-pressure area.


Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the coming days as the system moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea.


Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible in parts of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba.



Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm warnings may be required for parts of the area later today or tonight. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate this system later today.



  • Probability of formation during 48 hours: high, 80 percent.

  • Formation chance during 7 days: high, 90 percent.


What else is there and how likely are they to get stronger?


Near the Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure a few hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwest Atlantic Ocean.


Slow development of this system is possible during the day as it moves west toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be incorporated into Invest 97L over the Caribbean Sea late Monday, ending its chances of development.




  • Probability of formation during 48 hours: low, 10 percent.

  • Formation chance during 7 days: low, 10 percent.


Who is likely to be affected?


Forecasters say 1 to 2 inches of rain will fall across Jamaica north to Cuba. Heavier rain of 4 to 8 inches may occur near the storm’s track over western Cuba and central Jamaica, with an AccuWeather high of 5 inches at the highest terrain.


“This rain could cause flash flooding, landslides and difficult travel in parts of Jamaica and Cuba,” Reppert said.


As the tropical storm moves north and gains strength, wind gusts will increase, with gusts of 40 to 60 miles per hour forecast.



Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida


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When is the Atlantic Hurricane Season?


The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.


The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.


Countdown clock: when does hurricane season end?


Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city


What’s next?


We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download the app from your local site to ensure you’re always up to date with the news. And find our special subscription offers here.


(This story has been updated to add new information.)



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